Saturday, February 09, 2008

What now

The conventional wisdom now that Romney has dropped out of the race is that John McCain has the nomination sewed up. But don't tell that to Mike Huckabee. Huckabee believes he's going to win. And when you look at it he might. It will be hard--McCain is more than half way there--but it's doable.

Look at it. In every contest so far, Romney and Huckabee have been splitting the conservative vote. Now where are they going to go? Not to McCain. They hate him. McCain will win the independents and some of the deficit hawks, but not the bread and butter conservatives. They'll go to Huckabee.

This weekend is Louisiana, Kansas, and Washington. I haven't seen the polls, but I have an idea about them. Huckabee will be strong in Kansas, and a long shot in Washington. But Washington is a caucus state, where Huckabee, like Obama, is very strong. Don't be too surprised if Huckabee wins all three. Louisiana is weird. They already had a caucus, but now they've got a primary. McCain won the caucuses, but those only select some of the delegates. Twenty delegates are up for grabs this weekend. They are committed only if someone wins a majority. McCain should win Louisiana, but Huckabee has great momentum. More than anybody realizes, (except Huckabee). On Tuesday are the Potomac contests of Virginia, Maryland and DC, all places where McCain should be strong. But if McCain is coming off three weekend losses, and Huckabee off a weekend sweep, look for Huckabee to pick up Virginia.

This is what the White House is hoping for--some wierd scenario wherein Huckabee wins the nomination, or at least the convention is brokered and the Bush and Rove can twist Romney's arm and get him to pledge his delegates to Huckabee. The last thing they want is to have to have GW cozy up to his arch rival. They hate McCain more than they hate Hilary.


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