Monday, September 08, 2008

The Bounce

The convention bounce appears to be in effect. As always, a candidate gets a five to seven point bounce right after his convention and McCain got his. The republicans ran a great convention. They basically ignored their record for the past eight years and it worked. They fell back on the strategy that they perfected over the last eight years of lie, and then when you get caught in a lie ignore it and lie again louder and more vociferously, secure that if you repeat a lie often enough it will become the truth. This is the Republican mantra. The current lie is that John McCain is an agent of change. Add to that the lie that democrats are responsible for your problems, that Barack Obama is a radical black separatist, that drilling for oil will lower your gas prices, and that Sarah Palin is a reasonable facsimile of Hillary Clinton. Oh, there are more lies, of course; too many for me to list right now. The lies are working and now Gallup shows McCain ahead of Obama 49% to 45% (within the margin of error) in decided voters and even in so called "leaners." It's a tight race. The media, of course, is playing this as a seismic shift in national opinion, but it really isn't. Opinions aren't likely to solidify until after the debates.

Gallup and CNN and the other pollsters are also measuring popular votes. As Al Gore can tell you, popular votes don't mean much. When polling based on electoral votes comes out, the picture looks much better for Obama. According to the Rassmussen Reports, Obama leads in electoral votes 193 to 183 with 162 votes in play. When you add states leaning one way or antoehr, Obama picks up another 71 votes to McCain's 64, with 27 up for grabs. Those 27 are in three states, Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia. This looks good for Obama. However, the major movement has all been in McCain's favor, as Ohio went from a tossup to leaning Republican. Over at things look rosier for Obama. They have Ohio, Nevada, and Colorado all leaning democratic, with only Virgina as a tossup. They currently give Obama 301 electoral votes, which puts him on Pennsylvania Avenue next spring.


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